Manchester City vs Leeds prediction
Premier LeagueRound 13Etihad Stadium
Manchester City21:00
Wed 2 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
LeedsMost likelyManchester City win · 57%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Manchester City win
Oddbert gives Manchester City a 57% chance of winning.
57%Manchester City
24%Draw
19%Leeds
In 100 matches like this, Manchester City would win about 57. In the other 43 or so, Manchester City doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Manchester City win 57, Draw 24, Leeds win 19.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
57%1Manchester CityManchester City win
24%XDrawDraw
19%2LeedsLeeds win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Manchester City meet Leeds. The model leans toward Manchester City, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Manchester City (57%), doesn't happen in about 43 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Manchester City
- L1-3NF
- W3-2RL
- L0-1BRI
- L1-2AV
- W5-1AAF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Leeds
- W1-0TOT
- L0-2BOU
- D0-0SUN
- D1-1MU
- L1-2ARS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Manchester City
Absence data is not available for this match.
Leeds
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Manchester City 2Draws 0Leeds 0
- LEE 0-1 MC
- MC 3-2 LEE
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Manchester City
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.18last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.33last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.5last 10
- Shots
- 16.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.6last 10
- Fouls
- 10.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Key players
- E. Haaland9G 0A9 apps
- P. Foden4G 1A7 apps
- R. Cherki4G 0A9 apps
Leeds
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.31last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.27last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 2 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 12.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.7last 10
- Fouls
- 12.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- D. Calvert-Lewin3G 1A10 apps
- J. Bogle2G 0A10 apps
- N. Okafor2G 0A9 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Etihad Stadium, Manchester
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 55,097
Line movement
Manchester City—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Leeds—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Manchester City, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.80Attacking xG form (home)2.05Expected goals (home)1.77Home advantage (team-tuned)88.9League id39.0Away form (away)2.89
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.