Manchester United vs RB Leipzig prediction
UEFA Champions LeagueRound League Stage - 6
Manchester United21:00
Tue 8 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
RB LeipzigMost likelyManchester United win · 59%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Manchester United win
Oddbert gives Manchester United a 59% chance of winning.
59%Manchester United
22%Draw
19%RB Leipzig
In 100 matches like this, Manchester United would win about 59. In the other 41 or so, Manchester United doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Manchester United win 59, Draw 22, RB Leipzig win 19.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
59%1Manchester UnitedManchester United win
22%XDrawDraw
19%2RB LeipzigRB Leipzig win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Manchester United meet RB Leipzig. The model leans toward Manchester United, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and What's at stake (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Manchester United (59%), doesn't happen in about 41 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Manchester United
- D4-4AV
- W3-2AR
- L0-2CHE
- L0-3BOU
- L1-4COM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
RB Leipzig
- W5-2FA
- L2-3MC
- W2-0FS0
- W4-0SE
- L1-4RM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Manchester United
Absence data is not available for this match.
RB Leipzig
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Manchester United
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.50last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.83last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 16.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 12.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Key players
- Matheus Cunha3G 1A10 apps
- Bruno Fernandes2G 1A9 apps
- P. Dorgu1G 2A3 apps
RB Leipzig
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.96last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.80last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 15.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.5last 10
- Fouls
- 11.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Key players
- A. Nusa4G 7A10 apps
- C. Nkunku5G 2A8 apps
- B. Gruda1G 5A9 apps
Line movement
Manchester United—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
RB Leipzig—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Manchester United, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and What's at stake (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)1.87What's at stake (away)0.00Attacking xG form (home)1.91Pi-rating edge0.32What's at stake (home)0.00League id2.00
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.