Maritimo vs Nacional prediction
Primeira LigaRound 12
Maritimo21:15
Fri 27 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
NacionalMost likelyNacional win · 41%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Nacional win
Oddbert gives Nacional a 41% chance of winning.
38%Maritimo
21%Draw
41%Nacional
In 100 matches like this, Nacional would win about 41. In the other 59 or so, Nacional doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Maritimo win 38, Draw 21, Nacional win 41.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
38%1MaritimoMaritimo win
21%XDrawDraw
41%2NacionalNacional win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Nacional (41%), doesn't happen in about 59 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Maritimo
- L0-2SC
- L0-5VS
- L1-2FP
- D1-1GV
- L1-3MOR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Nacional
- W1-0AV
- L0-1ARO
- W1-0SB
- L2-3RA
- L0-4FAM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Maritimo
Absence data is not available for this match.
Nacional
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Maritimo
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.96last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.42last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.3last 10
- Shots
- 10.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.4last 10
- Fouls
- 15.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Martín Tejón1G 1A10 apps
- Maurice Osei Boakye1G 1A10 apps
- Romain Correia1G 0A10 apps
Nacional
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.12last 6
- xG against / game
- 1.19last 6
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 10.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.2last 10
- Fouls
- 11.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Key players
- Matchoi Djaló2G 0A9 apps
- N. Kader2G 0A4 apps
- Léo Santos1G 1A4 apps
Line movement
Maritimo—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Nacional—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Nacional result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.21Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-43.1What's at stake (home)0.22What's at stake (away)0.16Attacking xG form (away)0.91Recent form (home)0.49
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.