Maritimo vs Santa Clara prediction
Primeira LigaRound 10
Maritimo19:00
Sun 1 Nov
Prediction T-24h
Santa ClaraMost likelySanta Clara win · 48%
Prediction
27%1Maritimo
26%XDraw
47%2Santa Clara
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Maritimo | Santa Clara |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Maritimo
- L1-2FP
- D1-1GV
- L1-3MOR
- L0-3BEN
- L1-2ARO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Santa Clara
- W1-0CP
- D0-0SB
- W2-1ARO
- W4-0RA
- D1-1ALV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Maritimo
No reported absences.
Santa Clara
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Maritimo
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 8
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 8
- xG for / game
- 0.88last 7
- xG against / game
- 1.48last 7
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 8
- BTTS
- 6 / 8
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 8
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.9last 8
- Shots
- 10.0last 8
- Shots on target
- 3.2last 8
- Fouls
- 15.4last 8
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 8
Santa Clara
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.17last 9
- xG against / game
- 0.62last 9
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 12.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.9last 10
- Fouls
- 12.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.7last 9
Line movement
Maritimo—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Santa Clara—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Santa Clara result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-137Pi-rating edge-0.12Defensive xG form (away)0.49Defensive xG form (home)2.74Clean-sheet streak (away)2.00Attacking xG form (away)1.22
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.