Marseille vs Le Havre prediction
Ligue 1Round 8
Marseille17:15
Sun 25 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Le HavreMost likelyMarseille win · 58%
Best price1.64 Onexbet
Prediction
58%1Marseillemarket 61%
23%XDrawmarket 21%
19%2Le Havremarket 18%
Marseille-3.0 ppDraw+1.8 ppLe Havre+1.2 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Marseillepays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 7% more than the typical book | Le Havrepays 7% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.10 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.35 | 4.90 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 4.45 | 5.20 |
| Onexbet | 1.64best | 4.57 | 5.33best |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 4.58best | 4.76 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Marseille at 1.64 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Marseille
- W2-0ET
- L1-2PSG
- L0-1REN
- L2-3PF
- L0-2MON
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Le Havre
- L0-1LIL
- L2-3TOU
- D0-0ANG
- L1-2SB2
- D1-1LYO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Marseille
No reported absences.
Le Havre
No reported absences.
Head to head
Marseille 4Draws 0Le Havre 0
- LH 0-1 MAR
- MAR 6-2 LH
- LH 1-3 MAR
- MAR 5-1 LH
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Marseille
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.68last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.87last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.5last 10
- Shots
- 14.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.4last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Himad Abdelli1G 0A1 apps
- Amine Harit1G 0A1 apps
- Emerson Palmieri0G 1A1 apps
Le Havre
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.28last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.50last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 12.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 10
- Fouls
- 14.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Line movement
Marseille—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Le Havre—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Marseille result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (home) and Attacking xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (home)4.22Attacking xG form (home)2.00Attacking xG form (away)1.54Defensive xG form (away)1.60Pi-rating edge0.76Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)190
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.