Marseille vs Levski Sofia prediction
UEFA Europa LeagueRound League Stage - 5
Marseille18:45
Thu 26 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Levski SofiaMost likelyMarseille win · 49%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Marseille win
Oddbert gives Marseille a 49% chance of winning.
49%Marseille
24%Draw
27%Levski Sofia
In 100 matches like this, Marseille would win about 49. In the other 51 or so, Marseille doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Marseille win 49, Draw 24, Levski Sofia win 27.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
49%1MarseilleMarseille win
24%XDrawDraw
27%2Levski SofiaLevski Sofia win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Marseille meet Levski Sofia. The model leans toward Marseille, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and What's at stake (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Marseille (49%), doesn't happen in about 51 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Marseille
- W2-1LEN
- W1-0BL
- W2-0TOU
- W4-3LH
- L0-1SG
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Levski Sofia
- W1-0JAG
- W2-1PLZ
- D1-1NN
- L0-1RBS
- L0-4AAF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Marseille
Absence data is not available for this match.
Levski Sofia
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Marseille
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.48last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.92last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 12.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.8last 10
- Fouls
- 11.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- A. Gouiri4G 3A10 apps
- H. Abdelli3G 1A10 apps
- A. Harit3G 0A8 apps
Levski Sofia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.07last 3
- xG against / game
- 1.39last 3
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.3last 10
- Shots
- 10.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.1last 10
- Fouls
- 10.4last 7
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 9
Key players
Player data from 7 of 10 matches
- Reinaldo3G 1A7 apps
- Everton Bala1G 1A7 apps
- S. Stoyanchov1G 0A3 apps
Line movement
Marseille—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Levski Sofia—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Marseille, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and What's at stake (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)0.44What's at stake (away)0.00What's at stake (home)0.00Defensive xG form (away)3.55Away form (away)6.65Recent form (home)9.39
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.