Marseille vs Toulouse prediction
Ligue 1Round 9
Marseille20:45
Sun 1 Nov
Prediction T-24h
ToulouseMost likelyMarseille win · 45%
Prediction
44%1Marseille
29%XDraw
27%2Toulouse
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Marseille | Toulouse |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Marseille
- W2-0ET
- L1-2PSG
- L0-1REN
- L2-3PF
- L0-2MON
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Toulouse
- D2-2MON
- W3-2LH
- D2-2LOR
- L0-1LIL
- D2-2SB2
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Marseille
No reported absences.
Toulouse
No reported absences.
Head to head
Marseille 3Draws 1Toulouse 0
- TOU 0-1 MAR
- MAR 2-2 TOU
- MAR 3-2 TOU
- TOU 1-3 MAR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Marseille
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.68last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.87last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.5last 10
- Shots
- 14.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.4last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Himad Abdelli1G 0A1 apps
- Amine Harit1G 0A1 apps
- Emerson Palmieri0G 1A1 apps
Toulouse
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.71last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.59last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 13.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 16.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Line movement
Marseille—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Toulouse—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Marseille result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (home) and Attacking xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (home)4.22Attacking xG form (home)2.00Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)100Attacking xG form (away)1.93Pi-rating edge0.43Fixture congestion (home)0.00
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.