Middlesbrough vs Bristol City prediction
ChampionshipRound 16Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough16:00
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Bristol CityMost likelyMiddlesbrough win · 65%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Middlesbrough win
Oddbert gives Middlesbrough a 65% chance of winning.
65%Middlesbrough
24%Draw
11%Bristol City
In 100 matches like this, Middlesbrough would win about 65. In the other 35 or so, Middlesbrough doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Middlesbrough win 65, Draw 24, Bristol City win 11.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
65%1MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough win
24%XDrawDraw
11%2Bristol CityBristol City win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Middlesbrough (65%), doesn't happen in about 35 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Middlesbrough
- D0-0WAT
- L0-2WRE
- W3-0CHA
- W5-1BOL
- D2-2CAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Bristol City
- L0-5NOR
- L1-2WOL
- W3-2BOL
- D0-0SC
- L0-1SU
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Middlesbrough
Absence data is not available for this match.
Bristol City
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Middlesbrough 0Draws 1Bristol City 3
- MID 1-1 BC
- BC 2-0 MID
- BC 2-1 MID
- MID 0-2 BC
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Middlesbrough
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.13last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.02last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.6last 10
- Shots
- 20.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.8last 10
- Fouls
- 8.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.2last 10
Key players
- W. Lankshear8G 0A8 apps
- A. Cozier-Duberry3G 5A10 apps
- T. Conway1G 4A10 apps
Bristol City
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.53last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.34last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 13.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.3last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Key players
- S. Twine3G 0A8 apps
- D. Ballard2G 0A10 apps
- Rio Cardines0G 2A10 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 34,988
Line movement
Middlesbrough—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Bristol City—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Middlesbrough result here; the model's main factors are Attacking xG form (home) and Defensive xG form (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)2.32Defensive xG form (away)1.69Pi-rating edge0.58Expected goals (away)0.86What's at stake (home)0.13Defensive xG form (home)0.83
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.