Middlesbrough vs Cardiff prediction
ChampionshipRound 11Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough13:30
Sat 17 Oct
Prediction T-24h
CardiffMost likelyMiddlesbrough win · 63%
Best price1.49 Dafabet
Prediction
62%1Middlesbroughmarket 66%
21%XDrawmarket 18%
17%2Cardiffmarket 16%
Middlesbrough-3.0 ppDraw+2.1 ppCardiff+0.9 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Middlesbrough | Draw | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dafabet | 1.49best | 4.90best | 5.60best |
| Onexbet | 1.47 | 4.70 | 5.45 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Middlesbrough at 1.49 (Dafabet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Middlesbrough
- W1-0WOL
- D2-2BIR
- D2-2MIL
- W4-3NOR
- W1-0QPR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Cardiff
- L1-2BLA
- W3-1CHA
- L0-1BOL
- D1-1SC
- L0-2POR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Middlesbrough
No reported absences.
Cardiff
No reported absences.
Head to head
Middlesbrough 1Draws 1Cardiff 0
- MID 1-1 CAR
- CAR 0-2 MID
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Middlesbrough
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.78last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.05last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 16.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 9.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.1last 10
Cardiff
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.72last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.57last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.8last 10
- Shots
- 18.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.0last 10
- Fouls
- 9.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
Line movement
Middlesbrough—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Cardiff—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Middlesbrough result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.67Attacking xG form (away)1.95Defensive xG form (away)1.27Attacking xG form (home)1.91What's at stake (home)0.18League id40.0
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.