Middlesbrough vs Charlton prediction
ChampionshipRound 13Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough16:00
Sat 31 Oct
Prediction T-24h
CharltonMost likelyMiddlesbrough win · 53%
Prediction
53%1Middlesbrough
27%XDraw
20%2Charlton
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Middlesbrough | Charlton |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Middlesbrough
- W1-0WOL
- D2-2BIR
- D2-2MIL
- W4-3NOR
- W1-0QPR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Charlton
- D1-1BC
- L1-3CAR
- D0-0POR
- D0-0QPR
- L0-4SC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Middlesbrough
No reported absences.
Charlton
No reported absences.
Head to head
Middlesbrough 1Draws 0Charlton 1
- MID 0-1 CHA
- CHA 1-2 MID
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Middlesbrough
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.78last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.05last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 16.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 9.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.1last 10
Charlton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.88last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.47last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 10.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.8last 10
- Fouls
- 12.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 9
Venue
- Venue
- Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
Line movement
Middlesbrough—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Charlton—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Middlesbrough result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Fixture congestion (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.64Fixture congestion (home)0.00Recent form (away)2.11Home form (home)10.2Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)252Attacking xG form (home)1.91
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.