Middlesbrough vs Swansea prediction
ChampionshipRound 17Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough20:45
Tue 24 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
SwanseaMost likelyMiddlesbrough win · 49%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Middlesbrough win
Oddbert gives Middlesbrough a 49% chance of winning.
49%Middlesbrough
24%Draw
27%Swansea
In 100 matches like this, Middlesbrough would win about 49. In the other 51 or so, Middlesbrough doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Middlesbrough win 49, Draw 24, Swansea win 27.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
49%1MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough win
24%XDrawDraw
27%2SwanseaSwansea win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Middlesbrough (49%), doesn't happen in about 51 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Middlesbrough
- D0-0WAT
- L0-2WRE
- W3-0CHA
- W5-1BOL
- D2-2CAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Swansea
- L1-2BIR
- L1-3POR
- W4-0BLA
- L0-5QPR
- L0-1WH
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Middlesbrough
Absence data is not available for this match.
Swansea
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Middlesbrough 2Draws 1Swansea 1
- SWA 2-2 MID
- MID 1-0 SWA
- SWA 1-0 MID
- MID 1-0 SWA
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Middlesbrough
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.13last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.02last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.6last 10
- Shots
- 20.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.8last 10
- Fouls
- 8.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.2last 10
Key players
- W. Lankshear8G 0A8 apps
- A. Cozier-Duberry3G 5A10 apps
- T. Conway1G 4A10 apps
Swansea
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.54last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.61last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.6last 10
- Shots
- 11.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 10
- Fouls
- 10.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.2last 10
Key players
- M. Yeo3G 0A7 apps
- Z. Vipotnik3G 0A10 apps
- Joseph Okopu1G 2A6 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 34,988
Line movement
Middlesbrough—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Swansea—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Middlesbrough result here; the model's main factors are What's at stake (away) and Recent form (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (away)0.17Recent form (away)1.90Defensive xG form (home)0.83What's at stake (home)0.17Attacking xG form (home)2.32Expected goals (home)1.71
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.