Millwall vs QPR prediction
ChampionshipRound 16The Den
Millwall13:30
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
QPRMost likelyMillwall win · 44%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Millwall win
Oddbert gives Millwall a 44% chance of winning.
44%Millwall
23%Draw
33%QPR
In 100 matches like this, Millwall would win about 44. In the other 56 or so, Millwall doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Millwall win 44, Draw 23, QPR win 33.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
44%1MillwallMillwall win
23%XDrawDraw
33%2QPRQPR win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Millwall (44%), doesn't happen in about 56 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Millwall
- L0-3WB
- L0-3BIR
- W4-1DER
- L1-2POR
- D2-2LIN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
QPR
- W2-1LIN
- D1-1BUR
- L1-4SOU
- W5-0SWA
- L0-3BIR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Millwall
Absence data is not available for this match.
QPR
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Millwall 3Draws 1QPR 0
- MIL 2-0 QPR
- QPR 1-2 MIL
- MIL 2-1 QPR
- QPR 1-1 MIL
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Millwall
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.66last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.43last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.0last 10
- Shots
- 13.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 10
- Fouls
- 12.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.4last 10
Key players
- L. Dykes2G 2A10 apps
- C. Neghli2G 2A10 apps
- K. Lisbie3G 0A8 apps
QPR
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.58last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.97last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 14.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.2last 10
- Fouls
- 9.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.4last 10
Key players
- R. Kone5G 1A7 apps
- N. Madsen2G 1A5 apps
- P. Smyth2G 1A10 apps
Venue
- Venue
- The Den, London
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 20,146
Line movement
Millwall—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
QPR—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Millwall result here; the model's main factors are Attacking xG form (home) and What's at stake (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)1.67What's at stake (away)0.04Attacking xG form (away)1.74Pi-rating edge0.35Home advantage (team-tuned)33.2Recent form (home)2.20
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.