Millwall vs Swansea prediction
ChampionshipRound 10The Den
Millwall20:45
Tue 13 Oct
Prediction T-24h
SwanseaMost likelyMillwall win · 39%
Best price2.60 Dafabet
Prediction
39%1Millwallmarket 37%
28%XDrawmarket 27%
33%2Swanseamarket 36%
Millwall+2.1 ppDraw+0.9 ppSwansea-3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Millwallpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Swanseapays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.62 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.60best | 2.63 |
| Betvictor | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.60best | 3.45 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.52 | 3.44 | 2.58 |
| Onexbet | 2.52 | 3.44 | 2.58 |
| Pinnacle | 2.55 | 3.44 | 2.72best |
| Sbo | 2.32 | 3.06 | 2.54 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Millwall at 2.60 (Dafabet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
4.15units · 0.4% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Millwall
- W1-0PRE
- D2-2WH
- D2-2MID
- L1-3BLA
- W4-0BOL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Swansea
- W2-1NOR
- W2-1LIN
- W3-1BUR
- L1-3SOU
- D0-0WRE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Millwall
No reported absences.
Swansea
No reported absences.
Head to head
Millwall 3Draws 1Swansea 0
- MIL 2-1 SWA
- SWA 1-1 MIL
- MIL 1-0 SWA
- SWA 0-1 MIL
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Millwall
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.84last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.44last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.5last 10
- Shots
- 14.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 12.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Swansea
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.58last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.13last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 12.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.5last 10
- Fouls
- 8.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 9
Referee profile
- Referee
- Edward Duckworth
- Yellows / game
- —
- Matches officiated
- 0
Venue
- Venue
- The Den, London
Line movement
Millwall—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Swansea—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Millwall result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.28Attacking xG form (away)1.55Recent form (home)5.40Attacking xG form (home)1.97League id40.0Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)65.8
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.