Monaco vs Auxerre prediction
Ligue 1Round 11Stade Louis II
Monaco20:45
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
AuxerreMost likelyMonaco win · 67%
Best price1.44 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Monaco win
Oddbert gives Monaco a 67% chance of winning.
67%Monaco
19%Draw
14%Auxerre
In 100 matches like this, Monaco would win about 67. In the other 33 or so, Monaco doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Monaco win 67, Draw 19, Auxerre win 14.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Prediction
67%1MonacoMonaco winmarket 70%
19%XDrawDrawmarket 18%
14%2AuxerreAuxerre winmarket 12%
Our model vs market
Monaco -3.0 ppDraw +1.7 ppAuxerre +1.3 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Match previewSummary
Monaco meet Auxerre. The model leans toward Monaco, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Recent form (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Monacopays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 7% more than the typical book | Auxerrepays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.44best | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 5.20best | 7.30best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Monaco at 1.44 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Monaco (67%), doesn't happen in about 33 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Monaco
- D1-1LM
- W2-0FN
- L1-3PF
- D1-1LIL
- W3-0SF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Auxerre
- L0-1PF
- L1-5STR
- D1-1LM
- W3-1LH
- L1-4REN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Monaco
Absence data is not available for this match.
Auxerre
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Monaco 3Draws 1Auxerre 0
- MON 2-2 AUX
- AUX 1-2 MON
- MON 4-2 AUX
- AUX 0-3 MON
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Monaco
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.27last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.17last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 11.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- Paris Josua Brunner4G 1A8 apps
- E. Diop2G 2A8 apps
- L. Camara1G 1A9 apps
Auxerre
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.34last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.91last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 11.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 16.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Key players
- C. Archer6G 0A8 apps
- D. Namaso3G 2A10 apps
- R. Faivre1G 3A10 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Stade Louis II, Monaco
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 18,523
Line movement
Monaco—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Auxerre—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Monaco, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Recent form (away). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.96Recent form (away)1.94Expected goals (home)2.13What's at stake (home)0.13Away form (away)3.44What's at stake (away)0.07
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.