Monaco vs Lille prediction
Ligue 1Round 8Stade Louis II
Monaco15:00
Sun 25 Oct
Prediction T-24h
LilleMost likelyMonaco win · 46%
Best price2.17 Onexbet
Prediction
46%1Monacomarket 45%
28%XDrawmarket 26%
26%2Lillemarket 29%
Monaco+1.4 ppDraw+1.6 ppLille-3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Monacopays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 7% more than the typical book | Lillepays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.11 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
| Onexbet | 2.17best | 3.86best | 3.39best |
| Pinnacle | 2.23 | 3.22 | 3.44 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Monaco at 2.17 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0.60units · 0.1% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Monaco
- D2-2TOU
- W2-1LEN
- D1-1STR
- W2-1PSG
- W2-0MAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Lille
- W1-0LH
- L1-2NIC
- W2-0ET
- L2-3RB
- W1-0TOU
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Monaco
No reported absences.
Lille
No reported absences.
Head to head
Monaco 0Draws 1Lille 3
- MON 0-1 LIL
- LIL 1-0 MON
- LIL 2-1 MON
- MON 0-0 LIL
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Monaco
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.12last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.32last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 11.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 11.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Lille
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.28last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.30last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 11.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 10.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Stade Louis II, Monaco
Line movement
Monaco—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Lille—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Monaco result here, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Away form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)1.90Away form (away)9.18Pi-rating edge0.13Defensive xG form (home)2.03Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)117Home form (home)8.21
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.