Monza vs Cagliari prediction
Serie ARound 7
Monza18:30
Mon 19 Oct
Prediction T-24h
CagliariMost likelyMonza win · 39%
Best price2.38 Onexbet
Prediction
39%1Monzamarket 42%
29%XDrawmarket 29%
32%2Cagliarimarket 29%
Monza-2.1 ppDraw-0.9 ppCagliari+3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Monzapays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Cagliaripays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 3.15 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.31 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.32 | 3.20 | 3.38 |
| Onexbet | 2.38best | 3.28best | 3.46best |
| Pinnacle | 2.35 | 3.22 | 3.30 |
| Sbo | 2.14 | 3.04 | 2.98 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Monza at 2.38 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Monza
- L1-3LAZ
- W2-1SAS
- L2-3LEC
- D1-1PAR
- L2-3UDI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Cagliari
- D1-1JUV
- W1-0UDI
- W2-1ATA
- W1-0LEC
- L0-1INT
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Monza
No reported absences.
Cagliari
No reported absences.
Head to head
Monza 0Draws 0Cagliari 2
- CAG 3-0 MON
- MON 1-2 CAG
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Monza
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.50last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.41last 9
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.9last 10
- Shots
- 12.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.1last 10
- Fouls
- 10.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Cagliari
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.35last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.42last 9
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.1last 10
- Shots
- 12.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 9.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 9
Key players
- Daniel Maldini1G 0A1 apps
- P. Mendy0G 1A1 apps
Line movement
Monza—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Cagliari—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Monza result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Defensive xG form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-331Defensive xG form (away)3.92Home advantage (team-tuned)-50.5Pi-rating edge-0.56Attacking xG form (away)1.45What's at stake (home)0.11
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.