Monza vs Como prediction
Serie ARound 14
Monza18:30
Sun 6 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
ComoMost likelyComo win · 78%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Como win
Oddbert gives Como a 78% chance of winning.
9%Monza
13%Draw
78%Como
In 100 matches like this, Como would win about 78. In the other 22 or so, Como doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Monza win 9, Draw 13, Como win 78.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
9%1MonzaMonza win
13%XDrawDraw
78%2ComoComo win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Monza meet Como. The model leans toward Como, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Como (78%), doesn't happen in about 22 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Monza
- L0-1ATA
- L1-2BOL
- L1-4NAP
- L2-3TOR
- W4-0CAG
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Como
- L0-2INT
- W9-1LEN
- W1-0VEN
- W3-1TOR
- W2-0SAS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Monza
Absence data is not available for this match.
Como
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Monza 0Draws 1Como 1
- MON 1-3 COM
- COM 1-1 MON
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Monza
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.63last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.38last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 14.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.8last 10
- Fouls
- 11.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- Gustavo Varela8G 1A9 apps
- Jay Robinson2G 1A8 apps
- Ricardo Mangas1G 2A10 apps
Como
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.89last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.16last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 15.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.1last 10
- Fouls
- 9.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- N. Paz5G 5A9 apps
- T. Douvikas8G 1A10 apps
- Jacobo Ramón Naveros2G 2A10 apps
Line movement
Monza—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Como—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Como, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-1.42Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-504Home advantage (team-tuned)-42.1Expected goals (away)2.61What's at stake (away)0.10Recent form (away)6.72
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.