Monza vs Fiorentina prediction
Serie ARound 12
Monza18:30
Mon 23 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
FiorentinaMost likelyFiorentina win · 50%
Best price2.10 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Fiorentina win
Oddbert gives Fiorentina a 50% chance of winning.
26%Monza
24%Draw
50%Fiorentina
In 100 matches like this, Fiorentina would win about 50. In the other 50 or so, Fiorentina doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Monza win 26, Draw 24, Fiorentina win 50.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
26%1MonzaMonza winmarket 28%
24%XDrawDrawmarket 25%
50%2FiorentinaFiorentina winmarket 47%
Our model vs market
Monza -1.9 ppDraw -1.1 ppFiorentina +3.0 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 6 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Monza meet Fiorentina. Our forecast (the market price with a small adjustment from our model) leans toward Fiorentina; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Monzapays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Fiorentinapays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.10best |
| Marathonbet | 3.38best | 3.84best | 2.04 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Fiorentina at 2.10 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Fiorentina (50%), doesn't happen in about 50 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Monza
- L0-1ATA
- L1-2BOL
- L1-4NAP
- L2-3TOR
- W4-0CAG
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Fiorentina
- D2-2JUV
- W4-2SAS
- D2-2ATA
- L1-2INT
- L1-3COM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Monza
Absence data is not available for this match.
Fiorentina
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Monza 1Draws 1Fiorentina 0
- MON 2-1 FIO
- FIO 2-2 MON
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Monza
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.63last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.38last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 14.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.8last 10
- Fouls
- 11.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- Gustavo Varela8G 1A9 apps
- Jay Robinson2G 1A8 apps
- Ricardo Mangas1G 2A10 apps
Fiorentina
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.71last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.46last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.1last 10
- Shots
- 17.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.2last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.2last 9
Key players
- A. Njie3G 2A9 apps
- Franco Mastantuono4G 0A10 apps
- Mateo Pellegrino4G 0A10 apps
Line movement
Monza—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Fiorentina—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast (the market price with a small adjustment from our model) leans toward Fiorentina; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.69Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-282Expected goals (away)2.16Attacking xG form (away)1.56Home advantage (team-tuned)-42.1Expected goals (home)1.59
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.