Monza vs Napoli prediction
Serie ARound 9
Monza20:45
Wed 28 Oct
Prediction T-24h
NapoliMost likelyNapoli win · 74%
Prediction
11%1Monza
15%XDraw
74%2Napoli
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Monza | Napoli |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Monza
- L1-3LAZ
- W2-1SAS
- L2-3LEC
- D1-1PAR
- L2-3UDI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Napoli
- W3-0FRO
- D1-1FIO
- W1-0BOL
- L0-1ARS
- L2-3INT
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Monza
No reported absences.
Napoli
No reported absences.
Head to head
Monza 0Draws 0Napoli 2
- MON 0-1 NAP
- NAP 2-0 MON
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Monza
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.50last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.41last 9
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.9last 10
- Shots
- 12.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.1last 10
- Fouls
- 10.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Napoli
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.71last 4
- xG against / game
- 0.87last 4
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.9last 10
- Shots
- 13.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.8last 10
- Fouls
- 8.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.1last 10
Line movement
Monza—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Napoli—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Napoli result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-466Pi-rating edge-1.16Defensive xG form (away)5.98Home advantage (team-tuned)-50.5Attacking xG form (away)4.99What's at stake (home)0.11
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.