Nacional vs Benfica prediction
Primeira LigaRound 13
Nacional17:00
Sun 6 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
BenficaMost likelyBenfica win · 84%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Benfica win
Oddbert gives Benfica a 84% chance of winning.
1%Nacional
15%Draw
84%Benfica
In 100 matches like this, Benfica would win about 84. In the other 16 or so, Benfica doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Nacional win 1, Draw 15, Benfica win 84.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
1%1NacionalNacional win
15%XDrawDraw
84%2BenficaBenfica win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Benfica (84%), doesn't happen in about 16 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Nacional
- W1-0AV
- L0-1ARO
- W1-0SB
- L2-3RA
- L0-4FAM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Benfica
- W3-2EST
- W3-1LP
- W1-0ALV
- W2-1SC
- W4-1ON
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Nacional
Absence data is not available for this match.
Benfica
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Nacional 0Draws 0Benfica 4
- BEN 2-0 NAC
- NAC 1-2 BEN
- BEN 3-0 NAC
- NAC 0-2 BEN
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Nacional
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.12last 6
- xG against / game
- 1.19last 6
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 10.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.2last 10
- Fouls
- 11.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Key players
- Matchoi Djaló2G 0A9 apps
- N. Kader2G 0A4 apps
- Léo Santos1G 1A4 apps
Benfica
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.95last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.99last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.9last 10
- Shots
- 17.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.7last 10
- Fouls
- 11.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.9last 10
Key players
- G. Prestianni5G 4A10 apps
- V. Pavlidis7G 1A9 apps
- H. Sudakov2G 1A8 apps
Line movement
Nacional—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Benfica—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Benfica result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-1.52Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-383Expected goals (away)2.46What's at stake (away)0.11Expected goals (home)0.77Attacking xG form (home)0.91
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.