Napoli vs AS Roma prediction
Serie ARound 8
Napoli18:00
Sat 24 Oct
Prediction T-24h
AS RomaMost likelyAS Roma win · 37%
Best price2.52 Onexbet
Prediction
35%1Napolimarket 33%
28%XDrawmarket 27%
37%2AS Romamarket 40%
Napoli+2.5 ppDraw+0.5 ppAS Roma-3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Napolipays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 7% more than the typical book | AS Romapays 5% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.00best | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.82 | 3.54 | 2.45 |
| Onexbet | 2.90 | 3.64best | 2.52best |
| Pinnacle | 2.93 | 3.52 | 2.35 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — AS Roma at 2.52 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Napoli
- W3-0FRO
- D1-1FIO
- W1-0BOL
- L0-1ARS
- L2-3INT
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
AS Roma
- D0-0COM
- D2-2INT
- W2-0TOR
- D1-1FEN
- W2-1ATA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Napoli
No reported absences.
AS Roma
No reported absences.
Head to head
Napoli 2Draws 2AS Roma 0
- NAP 2-2 AR
- AR 0-1 NAP
- AR 1-1 NAP
- NAP 1-0 AR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Napoli
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.71last 4
- xG against / game
- 0.87last 4
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.9last 10
- Shots
- 13.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.8last 10
- Fouls
- 8.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.1last 10
AS Roma
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.36last 7
- xG against / game
- 0.82last 7
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.4last 10
- Shots
- 17.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.1last 10
- Fouls
- 12.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Line movement
Napoli—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
AS Roma—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a AS Roma result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and Defensive xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)3.48Defensive xG form (home)5.98Attacking xG form (away)5.83Attacking xG form (home)4.99Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)20.0Away form (away)8.12
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.