Napoli vs Lecce prediction
Serie ARound 14
Napoli18:30
Sun 6 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
LecceMost likelyNapoli win · 63%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Napoli win
Oddbert gives Napoli a 63% chance of winning.
63%Napoli
21%Draw
16%Lecce
In 100 matches like this, Napoli would win about 63. In the other 37 or so, Napoli doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Napoli win 63, Draw 21, Lecce win 16.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
63%1NapoliNapoli win
21%XDrawDraw
16%2LecceLecce win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Napoli meet Lecce. The model leans toward Napoli, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Napoli (63%), doesn't happen in about 37 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Napoli
- D1-1LAZ
- L1-4FP
- L0-2JUV
- W4-1MON
- D3-3AR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Lecce
- D1-1TOR
- L1-2GEN
- L1-5FRO
- L0-2JUV
- W3-0UDI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Napoli
Absence data is not available for this match.
Lecce
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Napoli 4Draws 0Lecce 0
- NAP 2-1 LEC
- LEC 0-1 NAP
- LEC 0-1 NAP
- NAP 1-0 LEC
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Napoli
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.86last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.40last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 15.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.2last 10
- Fouls
- 9.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- M. Politano2G 4A10 apps
- S. McTominay5G 0A9 apps
- K. De Bruyne3G 1A10 apps
Lecce
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.09last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.84last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 12.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 14.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- L. Coulibaly2G 1A7 apps
- K. N’Dri2G 0A10 apps
- Tiago Gabriel1G 1A9 apps
Line movement
Napoli—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Lecce—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Napoli, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge1.02Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)303Expected goals (home)1.90Expected goals (away)0.64Recent form (away)2.12What's at stake (away)0.16
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.