NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard prediction
EredivisieRound 9Goffertstadion
NEC Nijmegen20:00
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Fortuna SittardMost likelyNEC Nijmegen win · 61%
Best price1.55 Betano
Prediction
61%1NEC Nijmegenmarket 64%
21%XDrawmarket 20%
18%2Fortuna Sittardmarket 16%
NEC Nijmegen-3.0 ppDraw+1.3 ppFortuna Sittard+1.7 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | NEC Nijmegenpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Fortuna Sittardpays 5% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.33 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.55best | 4.55 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.75 | 5.50 |
| Betvictor | 1.50 | 4.75best | 5.25 |
| Marathonbet | 1.48 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| Onexbet | 1.53 | 4.74 | 5.67best |
| Pinnacle | 1.53 | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — NEC Nijmegen at 1.55 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
NEC Nijmegen
- D1-1AJA
- D1-1GAE
- L0-3CAM
- D2-2EXC
- L1-3FEY
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Fortuna Sittard
- D1-1TWE
- W1-0WI
- L1-5AJA
- W3-2ADH
- W3-2GRO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
NEC Nijmegen
No reported absences.
Fortuna Sittard
No reported absences.
Head to head
NEC Nijmegen 2Draws 0Fortuna Sittard 2
- NN 2-3 FS
- FS 3-2 NN
- NN 4-1 FS
- FS 0-3 NN
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
NEC Nijmegen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.44last 7
- xG against / game
- 1.95last 7
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.8last 10
- Shots
- 12.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.2last 10
- Fouls
- 11.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Fortuna Sittard
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.91last 9
- xG against / game
- 2.18last 9
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.1last 10
- Shots
- 11.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.3last 10
- Fouls
- 8.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.2last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
Line movement
NEC Nijmegen—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Fortuna Sittard—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a NEC Nijmegen result here, shaped mainly by What's at stake (home) and Defensive xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (home)0.02Defensive xG form (home)2.04League id88.0Recent form (home)2.36Pi-rating edge0.48Away form (away)7.77
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.