NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen prediction
EredivisieRound 10Goffertstadion
NEC Nijmegen14:30
Sun 25 Oct
Prediction T-24h
GroningenMost likelyNEC Nijmegen win · 43%
Best price2.10 Onexbet
Prediction
43%1NEC Nijmegenmarket 46%
26%XDrawmarket 24%
31%2Groningenmarket 30%
NEC Nijmegen-3.0 ppDraw+1.6 ppGroningen+1.4 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | NEC Nijmegenpays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Groningenpays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.03 | 3.80 | 3.12 |
| Onexbet | 2.10best | 3.92best | 3.22best |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — NEC Nijmegen at 2.10 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
NEC Nijmegen
- D1-1AJA
- D1-1GAE
- L0-3CAM
- D2-2EXC
- L1-3FEY
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Groningen
- W5-1EXC
- W3-0PZ
- D1-1GAE
- D2-2TWE
- L2-3FS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
NEC Nijmegen
No reported absences.
Groningen
No reported absences.
Head to head
NEC Nijmegen 2Draws 0Groningen 2
- GRO 2-1 NN
- NN 2-0 GRO
- GRO 2-1 NN
- NN 6-0 GRO
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
NEC Nijmegen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.44last 7
- xG against / game
- 1.95last 7
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.8last 10
- Shots
- 12.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.2last 10
- Fouls
- 11.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Groningen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.46last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.78last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 13.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.3last 10
- Fouls
- 9.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
Line movement
NEC Nijmegen—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Groningen—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a NEC Nijmegen result here, shaped mainly by Away form (away) and What's at stake (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Away form (away)6.44What's at stake (home)0.01Defensive xG form (home)2.04Pi-rating edge0.32League id88.0Recent form (home)2.36
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.