NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven prediction
EredivisieRound 13Goffertstadion
NEC Nijmegen16:30
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
PSV EindhovenMost likelyPSV Eindhoven win · 66%
Best price1.53 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: PSV Eindhoven win
Oddbert gives PSV Eindhoven a 66% chance of winning.
14%NEC Nijmegen
20%Draw
66%PSV Eindhoven
In 100 matches like this, PSV Eindhoven would win about 66. In the other 34 or so, PSV Eindhoven doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: NEC Nijmegen win 14, Draw 20, PSV Eindhoven win 66.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Prediction
14%1NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen winmarket 17%
20%XDrawDrawmarket 18%
66%2PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven winmarket 65%
Our model vs market
NEC Nijmegen -3.0 ppDraw +2.1 ppPSV Eindhoven +0.9 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 5 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | NEC Nijmegenpays 1% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | PSV Eindhovenpays 2% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 1.50 |
| Betano | 5.10 | 4.90best | 1.53best |
| Marathonbet | 5.10best | 4.80 | 1.49 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — PSV Eindhoven at 1.53 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for PSV Eindhoven (66%), doesn't happen in about 34 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
NEC Nijmegen
- W3-2UTR
- W3-1ON
- L0-1HEE
- D2-2GRO
- W4-2DZ
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
PSV Eindhoven
- W5-2CAM
- L1-2CBK
- W7-0WI
- D1-1FEY
- W1-0FP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
NEC Nijmegen
Absence data is not available for this match.
PSV Eindhoven
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
NEC Nijmegen 1Draws 1PSV Eindhoven 2
- PE 2-3 NN
- NN 3-5 PE
- NN 3-3 PE
- PE 2-0 NN
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
NEC Nijmegen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.71last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.58last 9
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.2last 10
- Shots
- 17.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.7last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Key players
- T. Chery3G 2A9 apps
- B. Linssen4G 0A10 apps
- Clement Bischoff3G 1A8 apps
PSV Eindhoven
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.13last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.67last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.2last 10
- Shots
- 18.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- S. Mijnans8G 2A9 apps
- G. Til6G 1A10 apps
- E. Bajraktarevic0G 5A8 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 12,540
Line movement
NEC Nijmegen—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
PSV Eindhoven—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a PSV Eindhoven result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.92Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-202Home advantage (team-tuned)10.5Expected goals (away)2.73What's at stake (away)0.15Attacking xG form (home)1.61
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.