Netherlands vs Greece prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League A - 5Johan Cruijff Arena
Netherlands20:45
Fri 13 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
GreeceMost likelyNetherlands win · 65%
Best price1.52 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Netherlands win
Oddbert gives Netherlands a 65% chance of winning.
65%Netherlands
20%Draw
15%Greece
In 100 matches like this, Netherlands would win about 65. In the other 35 or so, Netherlands doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Netherlands win 65, Draw 20, Greece win 15.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
65%1NetherlandsNetherlands winmarket 65%
20%XDrawDrawmarket 20%
15%2GreeceGreece winmarket 15%
Our model vs market
Netherlands +0.1 ppDraw +0.0 ppGreece -0.1 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 10 books) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Netherlands meet Greece. Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans toward Netherlands; the model's main factors are International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Netherlandspays 1% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Greecepays 10% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.52best | 4.65best | 5.70 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 4.60 | 6.30best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Netherlands at 1.52 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Netherlands
- W2-1SER
- D2-2GRE
- W2-1SER
- D1-1GER
- D1-1MOR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Greece
- D0-0GER
- D2-2NET
- W1-0GER
- W2-1SER
- L0-1ITA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Netherlands
Absence data is not available for this match.
Greece
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Netherlands 0Draws 1Greece 0
- GRE 2-2 NET
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Netherlands
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Key players
- C. Gakpo6G 1A8 apps
- Crysencio Summerville2G 2A10 apps
- B. Brobbey3G 0A7 apps
Greece
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Key players
Player data from 9 of 10 matches
- C. Tzolis2G 1A8 apps
- Giorgos Masouras2G 1A8 apps
- K. Tsimikas1G 1A9 apps
Weather
- Temperature
- 6°C
- Conditions
- Rain
- Wind
- 4 km/h
Weather data from OpenWeather, used under the Open Database License (ODbL).
Venue
- Venue
- Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 55,885
Line movement
Netherlands—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Greece—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans toward Netherlands; the model's main factors are International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
International Elo (home)1914Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.