Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction
Premier LeagueRound 11St. James' Park
Newcastle18:30
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
ArsenalMost likelyArsenal win · 58%
Best price1.60 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Arsenal win
Oddbert gives Arsenal a 58% chance of winning.
19%Newcastle
23%Draw
58%Arsenal
In 100 matches like this, Arsenal would win about 58. In the other 42 or so, Arsenal doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Newcastle win 19, Draw 23, Arsenal win 58.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
19%1NewcastleNewcastle winmarket 17%
23%XDrawDrawmarket 22%
58%2ArsenalArsenal winmarket 61%
Our model vs market
Newcastle +2.5 ppDraw +0.5 ppArsenal -3.0 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Newcastle meet Arsenal. The model leans toward Arsenal, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Newcastlepays 1% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Arsenalpays 1% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 5.50 | 4.10 | 1.57 |
| Betano | 5.40 | 4.15 | 1.60best |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 4.10 | 1.57 |
| Marathonbet | 5.50best | 4.30best | 1.59 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Arsenal at 1.60 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Arsenal (58%), doesn't happen in about 42 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Newcastle
- D1-1FUL
- L0-1EVE
- W2-0CP
- L0-1AV
- L1-4COV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Arsenal
- W1-0HC
- W2-1SP
- W1-0LIV
- W2-0EVE
- D2-2BM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Newcastle
Absence data is not available for this match.
Arsenal
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Newcastle 1Draws 0Arsenal 3
- ARS 1-0 NEW
- NEW 1-2 ARS
- ARS 1-0 NEW
- NEW 1-0 ARS
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Newcastle
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.19last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.68last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 12.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.4last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.6last 10
Key players
- H. Barnes2G 2A10 apps
- A. Elanga2G 0A6 apps
- J. Willock2G 0A10 apps
Arsenal
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.61last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.20last 10
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.4last 10
- Shots
- 13.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 9.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Key players
- D. Rice1G 4A10 apps
- V. Gyökeres1G 3A9 apps
- B. Saka2G 1A6 apps
Venue
- Venue
- St. James' Park, Newcastle
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 52,758
Line movement
Newcastle—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Arsenal—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Arsenal, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.80Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-214Recent form (away)8.67Expected goals (home)0.75What's at stake (home)0.07Expected goals (away)1.70
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.