Newcastle vs Everton prediction
Premier LeagueRound 9St. James' Park
Newcastle21:00
Mon 2 Nov
Prediction T-24h
EvertonMost likelyNewcastle win · 46%
Prediction
46%1Newcastle
28%XDraw
26%2Everton
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Newcastle | Everton |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Newcastle
- L1-4COV
- W2-1HC
- L1-4LEE
- D2-2BOU
- W2-0TOT
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Everton
- D2-2HC
- W1-0IPS
- D0-0TOT
- D2-2MU
- D1-1BOU
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Newcastle
No reported absences.
Everton
No reported absences.
Head to head
Newcastle 1Draws 1Everton 2
- NEW 2-3 EVE
- EVE 1-4 NEW
- NEW 0-1 EVE
- EVE 0-0 NEW
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Newcastle
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.39last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.60last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.6last 10
- Shots
- 12.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.5last 10
- Fouls
- 10.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- S. Botman1G 0A1 apps
- Nico González0G 1A1 apps
Everton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.48last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.43last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 14.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 10.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Venue
- Venue
- St. James' Park, Newcastle
Line movement
Newcastle—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Everton—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Newcastle result here, shaped mainly by Fixture congestion (home) and Recent form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Fixture congestion (home)0.00Recent form (away)4.75Rest-days edge-1.25Pi-rating edge0.29What's at stake (home)0.03Home form (home)7.10
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.