Newcastle vs Sunderland prediction
Premier LeagueRound 14St. James' Park
Newcastle16:00
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
SunderlandMost likelyNewcastle win · 48%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Newcastle win
Oddbert gives Newcastle a 48% chance of winning.
48%Newcastle
26%Draw
26%Sunderland
In 100 matches like this, Newcastle would win about 48. In the other 52 or so, Newcastle doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Newcastle win 48, Draw 26, Sunderland win 26.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
48%1NewcastleNewcastle win
26%XDrawDraw
26%2SunderlandSunderland win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Newcastle meet Sunderland. The model leans toward Newcastle, shaped mainly by Away form (away) and What's at stake (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Newcastle (48%), doesn't happen in about 52 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Newcastle
- D1-1FUL
- L0-1EVE
- W2-0CP
- L0-1AV
- L1-4COV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Sunderland
- W1-0CHE
- L0-2DZ
- L1-3COV
- D0-0LEE
- D1-1LP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Newcastle
Absence data is not available for this match.
Sunderland
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Newcastle 0Draws 0Sunderland 2
- NEW 1-2 SUN
- SUN 1-0 NEW
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Newcastle
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.19last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.68last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 12.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.4last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.6last 10
Key players
- H. Barnes2G 2A10 apps
- A. Elanga2G 0A6 apps
- J. Willock2G 0A10 apps
Sunderland
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.88last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.56last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.7last 10
- Shots
- 15.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.8last 10
- Fouls
- 12.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- E. Le Fée3G 1A10 apps
- B. Brobbey3G 0A6 apps
- N. Angulo0G 2A9 apps
Venue
- Venue
- St. James' Park, Newcastle
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 52,758
Line movement
Newcastle—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Sunderland—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Newcastle, shaped mainly by Away form (away) and What's at stake (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Away form (away)2.83What's at stake (away)0.24Pi-rating edge0.48Fixture congestion (home)0.00What's at stake (home)0.10Recent form (home)2.77
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.