Nice vs Estac Troyes prediction
Ligue 1Round 12Allianz Riviera
Nice20:45
Sat 28 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Estac TroyesMost likelyNice win · 59%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Nice win
Oddbert gives Nice a 59% chance of winning.
59%Nice
24%Draw
17%Estac Troyes
In 100 matches like this, Nice would win about 59. In the other 41 or so, Nice doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Nice win 59, Draw 24, Estac Troyes win 17.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Prediction
59%1NiceNice win
24%XDrawDraw
17%2Estac TroyesEstac Troyes win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Match previewSummary
Nice meet Estac Troyes. The model leans toward Nice, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Nice (59%), doesn't happen in about 41 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Nice
- W2-0ANG
- W5-2REN
- W2-1SB2
- L1-2LYO
- W2-1STR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Estac Troyes
- L0-1PSG
- W2-0LM
- D0-0TOU
- L1-3LEN
- L0-2MAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Nice
Absence data is not available for this match.
Estac Troyes
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Nice
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.48last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.54last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 12.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 9.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Key players
- E. Wahi6G 2A9 apps
- S. Diop2G 3A10 apps
- J. Clauss3G 1A10 apps
Estac Troyes
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.99last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.38last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.7last 10
- Shots
- 13.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.3last 10
- Fouls
- 12.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 9
Key players
- A. Mille1G 1A10 apps
- T. Nkada1G 1A8 apps
- M. Diop1G 0A10 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Allianz Riviera, Nice
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 35,624
Line movement
Nice—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Estac Troyes—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Nice, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)1.85Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)276What's at stake (away)0.20Pi-rating edge0.14Recent form (away)2.71What's at stake (home)0.04
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.