Nice vs Paris Saint Germain prediction
Ligue 1Round 11Allianz Riviera
Nice17:15
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Paris Saint GermainMost likelyParis Saint Germain win · 63%
Best price1.50 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Paris Saint Germain win
Oddbert gives Paris Saint Germain a 63% chance of winning.
17%Nice
20%Draw
63%Paris Saint Germain
In 100 matches like this, Paris Saint Germain would win about 63. In the other 37 or so, Paris Saint Germain doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Nice win 17, Draw 20, Paris Saint Germain win 63.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
17%1NiceNice winmarket 15%
20%XDrawDrawmarket 18%
63%2Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain winmarket 67%
Our model vs market
Nice +1.5 ppDraw +1.5 ppParis Saint Germain -3.0 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Nice meet Paris Saint Germain. The model leans toward Paris Saint Germain, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Nicepays 12% more than the typical book | Drawpays 7% more than the typical book | Paris Saint Germainpays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.45 |
| Betano | 5.50 | 5.00 | 1.50best |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 4.75 | 1.44 |
| Marathonbet | 6.15best | 5.10best | 1.46 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Paris Saint Germain at 1.50 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Paris Saint Germain (63%), doesn't happen in about 37 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Nice
- W2-0ANG
- W5-2REN
- W2-1SB2
- L1-2LYO
- W2-1STR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Paris Saint Germain
- W1-0ET
- W6-0VIL
- W5-1LH
- W2-0LYO
- W4-2BAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Nice
Absence data is not available for this match.
Paris Saint Germain
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Nice 1Draws 1Paris Saint Germain 2
- NIC 0-4 PSG
- PSG 1-0 NIC
- PSG 1-3 NIC
- NIC 1-1 PSG
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Nice
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.48last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.54last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 12.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 9.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Key players
- E. Wahi6G 2A9 apps
- S. Diop2G 3A10 apps
- J. Clauss3G 1A10 apps
Paris Saint Germain
Goals
- Scored / game
- 3.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.67last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.45last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 19.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 9.6last 10
- Fouls
- 7.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 0.8last 10
Key players
- D. Doué4G 3A9 apps
- A. Hakimi3G 3A8 apps
- Senny Mayulu3G 2A5 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Allianz Riviera, Nice
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 35,624
Line movement
Nice—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Paris Saint Germain—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Paris Saint Germain, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-1.50Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-306What's at stake (away)0.00Home form (home)9.81Home advantage (team-tuned)76.5Expected goals (away)1.98
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.