North Carolina Courage W vs San Diego Wave W prediction
NWSL WomenRound Group Stage
North Carolina Courage W01:00
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
San Diego Wave WMost likelyNorth Carolina Courage W win · 40%
Best price2.50 Betano
Prediction
40%1North Carolina Courage Wmarket 39%
22%XDrawmarket 25%
38%2San Diego Wave Wmarket 36%
Our model vs market
North Carolina Courage W +1.2 ppDraw -3.5 ppSan Diego Wave W +2.3 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Stale predictionPrediction as of 13 Oct 2026Predictions for this league are paused — this is the last one we made, not a live call.
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | North Carolina Courage Wpays 6% more than the typical book | Drawpays 2% more than the typical book | San Diego Wave Wpays 2% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.50best | 3.45 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Betvictor | 2.25 | 3.13 | 2.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.48 | 2.44 |
| Onexbet | 2.35 | 3.48 | 2.44 |
| Pinnacle | 2.43 | 3.52best | 2.53best |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
This prediction is stale (paused league or not refreshed), so we size nothing on it.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
North Carolina Courage W
- W1-0SRF
- L1-2URW
- L1-2NGF
- L1-2SDW
- W6-0CRS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
San Diego Wave W
- W2-1OPW
- W2-0RLW
- W2-0KCW
- W2-1NCC
- L0-1SRF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
North Carolina Courage W
No reported absences.
San Diego Wave W
No reported absences.
Head to head
North Carolina Courage W 2Draws 2San Diego Wave W 3
- SDW 2-1 NCC
- NCC 0-0 SDW
- SDW 5-2 NCC
- NCC 2-1 SDW
- SDW 1-4 NCC
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
North Carolina Courage W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
San Diego Wave W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Line movement
North Carolina Courage W—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
San Diego Wave W—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a North Carolina Courage W result here, shaped mainly by Expected goals (away) and Expected goals (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (away)1.49Expected goals (home)1.52Goal correlation0.12
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.