Norway vs Wales prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League A - 5
Norway18:00
Sat 14 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
WalesMost likelyNorway win · 78%
Best price1.25 Marathonbet
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Norway win
Oddbert gives Norway a 78% chance of winning.
78%Norway
14%Draw
8%Wales
In 100 matches like this, Norway would win about 78. In the other 22 or so, Norway doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Norway win 78, Draw 14, Wales win 8.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
78%1NorwayNorway winmarket 80%
14%XDrawDrawmarket 13%
8%2WalesWales winmarket 7%
Our model vs market
Norway -1.8 ppDraw +0.9 ppWales +0.9 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 10 books) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Norway meet Wales. Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans toward Norway; the model's main factors are International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Norwaypays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 17% more than the typical book | Walespays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 7.00best | 10.00 |
| Betano | 1.25 | 6.00 | 11.50best |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.25best | 6.50 | 11.25 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Norway at 1.25 (Marathonbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Norway (78%), doesn't happen in about 22 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Norway
- L1-2POR
- L1-2WAL
- L1-2POR
- W3-2DEN
- L1-2ENG
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Wales
- L0-1DEN
- W2-1NOR
- L0-2DEN
- L0-1POR
- L1-2ROM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Norway
Absence data is not available for this match.
Wales
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Norway 0Draws 0Wales 1
- WAL 2-1 NOR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Norway
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 10 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Key players
- E. Haaland10G 0A9 apps
- M. Ødegaard0G 8A9 apps
- A. Schjelderup1G 3A10 apps
Wales
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Key players
- D. James3G 2A9 apps
- H. Wilson3G 1A3 apps
- D. Brooks2G 0A7 apps
Line movement
Norway—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Wales—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans toward Norway; the model's main factors are International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
International Elo (home)1835Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.