Norwich vs Cardiff prediction
ChampionshipRound 16
Norwich13:30
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
CardiffMost likelyNorwich win · 49%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Norwich win
Oddbert gives Norwich a 49% chance of winning.
49%Norwich
24%Draw
27%Cardiff
In 100 matches like this, Norwich would win about 49. In the other 51 or so, Norwich doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Norwich win 49, Draw 24, Cardiff win 27.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
49%1NorwichNorwich win
24%XDrawDraw
27%2CardiffCardiff win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Norwich (49%), doesn't happen in about 51 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Norwich
- W5-0BC
- W4-0DER
- W3-2WAT
- W3-1CHA
- L0-1POR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Cardiff
- W5-4BUR
- D3-3WH
- L0-3WOL
- W1-0BIR
- D2-2MID
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Norwich
Absence data is not available for this match.
Cardiff
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Norwich 1Draws 0Cardiff 1
- NOR 4-2 CAR
- CAR 2-1 NOR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Norwich
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.33last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.52last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 13.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.1last 10
- Fouls
- 10.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Key players
- P. Maghoma4G 2A9 apps
- M. Kvistgaarden2G 4A8 apps
- J. Makama3G 0A10 apps
Cardiff
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.28last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.58last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 17.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.7last 10
- Fouls
- 9.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- J. Moylan9G 3A10 apps
- O. Tanner3G 3A10 apps
- Y. Salech4G 1A7 apps
Line movement
Norwich—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Cardiff—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Norwich result here; the model's main factors are Expected goals (away) and Attacking xG form (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (away)1.51Attacking xG form (away)2.13What's at stake (home)0.08Recent form (home)8.39Expected goals (home)2.51Home advantage (team-tuned)15.2
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.