Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal prediction
Premier LeagueRound 7
Nottingham Forest17:30
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
ArsenalMost likelyArsenal win · 64%
Best price1.66 Onexbet
Prediction
16%1Nottingham Forestmarket 15%
20%XDrawmarket 23%
64%2Arsenalmarket 62%
Nottingham Forest+0.9 ppDraw-3.0 ppArsenal+2.1 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Nottingham Forestpays 12% more than the typical book | Drawpays 8% more than the typical book | Arsenalpays 5% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 5.25 | 4.20best | 1.55 |
| Betano | 5.70 | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.53 |
| Betvictor | 5.75 | 3.90 | 1.55 |
| Dafabet | 5.80 | 4.10 | 1.58 |
| Marathonbet | 5.95 | 3.88 | 1.62 |
| Onexbet | 6.11 | 3.98 | 1.66best |
| Pinnacle | 6.48best | 3.87 | 1.58 |
| Sbo | 5.22 | 3.67 | 1.51 |
| William Hill | 5.80 | 3.70 | 1.62 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Arsenal at 1.66 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
20.57units · 2.1% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Nottingham Forest
- L1-3CP
- L0-1COV
- W2-1AV
- D0-0TOT
- D2-2LIV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Arsenal
- W2-1LEE
- L0-3BRI
- W2-0SUN
- W1-0NAP
- W2-1CHE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Nottingham Forest
No reported absences.
Arsenal
No reported absences.
Head to head
Nottingham Forest 0Draws 2Arsenal 2
- NF 0-0 ARS
- ARS 3-0 NF
- NF 0-0 ARS
- ARS 3-0 NF
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Nottingham Forest
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.70last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.63last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 15.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.2last 10
- Fouls
- 12.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Arsenal
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.72last 9
- xG against / game
- 0.85last 9
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 14.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Line movement
Nottingham Forest—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Arsenal—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Arsenal result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-1.02Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-299Attacking xG form (away)3.56Rest-days edge-1.06Attacking xG form (home)1.92Home advantage (team-tuned)11.3
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.