Nottingham Forest vs Brighton prediction
Premier LeagueRound 14
Nottingham Forest16:00
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
BrightonMost likelyBrighton win · 43%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Brighton win
Oddbert gives Brighton a 43% chance of winning.
31%Nottingham Forest
26%Draw
43%Brighton
In 100 matches like this, Brighton would win about 43. In the other 57 or so, Brighton doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Nottingham Forest win 31, Draw 26, Brighton win 43.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
31%1Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest win
26%XDrawDraw
43%2BrightonBrighton win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Nottingham Forest meet Brighton. The model leans only slightly toward Brighton in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (away) and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Brighton (43%), doesn't happen in about 57 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Nottingham Forest
- W3-1MC
- L0-2BRE
- D1-1IPS
- L0-1ARS
- L1-3CP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Brighton
- W2-0BRE
- W1-0GET
- W1-0MC
- L0-2LIV
- D0-0FJ
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Nottingham Forest
Absence data is not available for this match.
Brighton
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Nottingham Forest 1Draws 1Brighton 2
- BRI 2-1 NF
- NF 0-2 BRI
- NF 7-0 BRI
- BRI 2-2 NF
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Nottingham Forest
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.52last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.08last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.5last 10
- Shots
- 16.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.6last 10
- Fouls
- 14.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.4last 10
Key players
- M. Gibbs-White1G 3A9 apps
- L. Delap3G 0A9 apps
- D. Ndoye2G 0A10 apps
Brighton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.87last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.89last 10
- Clean sheets
- 9 / 10
- BTTS
- 0 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 18.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 9
Key players
- P. Groß3G 4A10 apps
- C. Kostoulas3G 2A7 apps
- G. Rutter2G 2A9 apps
Line movement
Nottingham Forest—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Brighton—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Brighton in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (away) and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (away)1.47Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-92.8Recent form (away)7.47Expected goals (home)1.04Attacking xG form (home)1.60What's at stake (away)0.09
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.