Osasuna vs Racing Santander prediction
La LigaRound 9Estadio El Sadar
Osasuna14:00
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Racing SantanderMost likelyOsasuna win · 49%
Best price1.99 Onexbet
Prediction
50%1Osasunamarket 49%
28%XDrawmarket 26%
22%2Racing Santandermarket 25%
Osasuna-0.1 ppDraw+2.5 ppRacing Santander-2.3 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Osasunapays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Racing Santanderpays 10% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.65 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Betvictor | 1.87 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.97 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 3.62 | 3.98 |
| Onexbet | 1.99best | 3.72best | 4.08best |
| Pinnacle | 1.96 | 3.57 | 3.98 |
| Sbo | 1.93 | 3.31 | 3.25 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Osasuna at 1.99 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Osasuna
- L2-5RB
- D1-1RV
- L0-4AM
- L0-2ESP
- L2-5ALA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Racing Santander
- D2-2VAL
- L0-5CV
- L2-7BAR
- W2-1ALA
- L2-3RV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Osasuna
No reported absences.
Racing Santander
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Osasuna
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.25last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.36last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.8last 10
- Shots
- 11.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.5last 10
- Fouls
- 14.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Key players
- Raúl García de Haro1G 0A1 apps
- Ante Budimir1G 0A1 apps
- Rubén García0G 1A1 apps
Racing Santander
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 8
- Conceded / game
- 2.9last 8
- xG for / game
- 1.43last 8
- xG against / game
- 2.14last 8
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 8
- BTTS
- 6 / 8
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 8
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 8
- Shots
- 11.5last 8
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 8
- Fouls
- 14.4last 8
- Yellow cards
- 2.6last 8
Key players
- Iván Martín1G 0A1 apps
- M. Zabiri1G 0A1 apps
- Iñigo Vicente0G 1A1 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona
Line movement
Osasuna—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Racing Santander—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Osasuna result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and Defensive xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)2.84Defensive xG form (home)2.10What's at stake (home)0.13Pi-rating edge0.08Recent form (home)0.80Home advantage (team-tuned)84.6
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.