Pafos vs FC Midtjylland prediction
UEFA Conference LeagueRound League Stage - 4
Pafos18:45
Thu 26 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
FC MidtjyllandMost likelyFC Midtjylland win · 41%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: FC Midtjylland win
Oddbert gives FC Midtjylland a 41% chance of winning.
38%Pafos
21%Draw
41%FC Midtjylland
In 100 matches like this, FC Midtjylland would win about 41. In the other 59 or so, FC Midtjylland doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Pafos win 38, Draw 21, FC Midtjylland win 41.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
38%1PafosPafos win
21%XDrawDraw
41%2FC MidtjyllandFC Midtjylland win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for FC Midtjylland (41%), doesn't happen in about 59 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Pafos
- L1-3TWE
- D1-1RIG
- L1-3ATA
- W4-2DT
- D1-1DT
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
FC Midtjylland
- D2-2SON
- L1-6AJA
- W3-2FN
- W3-2LYN
- L0-1ST
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Pafos
Absence data is not available for this match.
FC Midtjylland
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Pafos
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.08last 4
- xG against / game
- 2.25last 4
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.1last 9
- Shots
- 13.3last 7
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 9
- Fouls
- 12.6last 8
- Yellow cards
- 2.4last 9
Key players
Player data from 5 of 10 matches
- Anderson Silva2G 0A5 apps
- M. Oršić1G 1A1 app
- Ken Sema1G 1A5 apps
FC Midtjylland
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.79last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.68last 9
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 13.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 11.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Key players
- Friday Etim4G 1A10 apps
- Gue-sung Cho3G 1A9 apps
- Philip Billing2G 2A9 apps
Line movement
Pafos—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
FC Midtjylland—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a FC Midtjylland result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Defensive xG form (home). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.51Defensive xG form (home)2.16Expected goals (away)2.50What's at stake (home)0.00Attacking xG form (away)2.22What's at stake (away)0.00
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.