Paris FC vs Le Mans prediction
Ligue 1Round 13Stade Jean Bouin
Paris FC17:00
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Le MansMost likelyParis FC win · 63%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Paris FC win
Oddbert gives Paris FC a 63% chance of winning.
63%Paris FC
22%Draw
15%Le Mans
In 100 matches like this, Paris FC would win about 63. In the other 37 or so, Paris FC doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Paris FC win 63, Draw 22, Le Mans win 15.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
63%1Paris FCParis FC win
22%XDrawDraw
15%2Le MansLe Mans win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Paris FC meet Le Mans. The model leans toward Paris FC, shaped mainly by Home advantage (team-tuned) and Expected goals (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Paris FC (63%), doesn't happen in about 37 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Paris FC
- W1-0AUX
- W3-1MON
- L1-2LEN
- W4-3REN
- L0-1LOR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Le Mans
- D1-1MON
- L0-2ET
- D1-1AUX
- L0-3TOU
- L1-3PSG
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Paris FC
Absence data is not available for this match.
Le Mans
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Paris FC
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.69last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.95last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.6last 10
- Shots
- 13.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 13.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.2last 10
Key players
- L. Sinayoko9G 5A10 apps
- P. Pagis2G 2A10 apps
- M. Lopez2G 2A10 apps
Le Mans
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.40last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.92last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.0last 10
- Shots
- 10.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.7last 10
- Fouls
- 14.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.2last 10
Key players
- L. Mafouta4G 1A10 apps
- A. Bourabaa3G 2A5 apps
- L. Calodat1G 2A10 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Stade Jean Bouin, Paris
- Surface
- Artificial turf
- Capacity
- 20,000
Line movement
Paris FC—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Le Mans—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Paris FC, shaped mainly by Home advantage (team-tuned) and Expected goals (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Home advantage (team-tuned)112Expected goals (home)2.20Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)416What's at stake (home)0.15Home form (home)11.3Fixture congestion (home)0.00
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.