Paris FC vs Rennes prediction
Ligue 1Round 7Stade Jean Bouin
Paris FC17:15
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
RennesMost likelyParis FC win · 39%
Best price2.37 Pinnacle
Prediction
39%1Paris FCmarket 41%
28%XDrawmarket 27%
33%2Rennesmarket 32%
Paris FC-2.7 ppDraw+1.8 ppRennes+0.9 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Paris FCpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Rennespays 13% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.60best | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.45 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Betvictor | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.29 | 3.55 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.31 | 3.36 | 3.20 |
| Onexbet | 2.37 | 3.45 | 3.28best |
| Pinnacle | 2.37best | 3.25 | 3.23 |
| Sbo | 2.16 | 3.31 | 2.74 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Paris FC at 2.37 (Pinnacle).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Paris FC
- L0-1LOR
- W2-1STR
- D0-0LYO
- W3-2MAR
- W3-0NIC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Rennes
- W4-1AUX
- L0-4LYO
- W1-0MAR
- W2-1ANG
- W3-2LM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Paris FC
No reported absences.
Rennes
No reported absences.
Head to head
Paris FC 0Draws 0Rennes 2
- REN 2-1 PF
- PF 0-1 REN
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Paris FC
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.68last 9
- xG against / game
- 0.96last 9
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 13.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 12.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Rennes
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.74last 10
- xG against / game
- 2.23last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.7last 10
- Shots
- 16.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.9last 10
- Fouls
- 13.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino
Line movement
Paris FC—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Rennes—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Paris FC result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and League id. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)79.2League id61.0Attacking xG form (away)2.02Defensive xG form (home)1.08Goal drought (home)1.00Rest-days edge0.85
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.