Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon prediction
Ligue 1Round 8Parc des Princes
Paris Saint Germain20:45
Sun 25 Oct
Prediction T-24h
LyonMost likelyParis Saint Germain win · 69%
Best price1.43 Onexbet
Prediction
69%1Paris Saint Germainmarket 72%
18%XDrawmarket 16%
13%2Lyonmarket 12%
Paris Saint Germain-3.0 ppDraw+2.1 ppLyon+0.9 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Paris Saint Germainpays 5% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Lyonpays 9% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 5.25 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.38 | 5.40 | 7.10 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 5.50 | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.39 | 5.30 | 7.40 |
| Onexbet | 1.43best | 5.44 | 7.60best |
| Pinnacle | 1.36 | 5.62best | 6.98 |
| William Hill | 1.33 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Paris Saint Germain at 1.43 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Paris Saint Germain
- W3-1LM
- W2-1MAR
- W1-0SB2
- W6-1SB
- L1-2MON
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Lyon
- L1-2LEN
- W4-0REN
- D0-0PF
- W3-1AUX
- D1-1LH
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Paris Saint Germain
No reported absences.
Lyon
No reported absences.
Head to head
Paris Saint Germain 3Draws 0Lyon 1
- PSG 1-2 LYO
- LYO 2-3 PSG
- LYO 2-3 PSG
- PSG 3-1 LYO
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Paris Saint Germain
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.87last 8
- xG against / game
- 1.37last 8
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 20.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.7last 10
- Fouls
- 6.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.0last 10
Lyon
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.66last 6
- xG against / game
- 1.20last 6
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.0last 10
- Shots
- 13.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.6last 10
- Fouls
- 12.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Parc des Princes, Paris
Line movement
Paris Saint Germain—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Lyon—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Paris Saint Germain result here, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)7.17Pi-rating edge1.08Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)278Defensive xG form (away)0.89League id61.0Defensive xG form (home)2.27
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.