Parma vs AS Roma prediction
Serie ARound 12Stadio Ennio Tardini
Parma18:00
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
AS RomaMost likelyAS Roma win · 70%
Best price1.36 Marathonbet
Oddbert's view
Most likely: AS Roma win
Oddbert gives AS Roma a 70% chance of winning.
12%Parma
18%Draw
70%AS Roma
In 100 matches like this, AS Roma would win about 70. In the other 30 or so, AS Roma doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Parma win 12, Draw 18, AS Roma win 70.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
12%1ParmaParma winmarket 10%
18%XDrawDrawmarket 17%
70%2AS RomaAS Roma winmarket 73%
Our model vs market
Parma +1.9 ppDraw +1.1 ppAS Roma -3.0 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Parma meet AS Roma. The model leans toward AS Roma, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Home advantage (team-tuned). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Parmapays 21% more than the typical book | Drawpays 2% more than the typical book | AS Romapays 1% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 10.00best | 5.25best | 1.25 |
| Betano | 8.25 | 5.10 | 1.36 |
| Betfair | 8.00 | 5.00 | 1.33 |
| Marathonbet | 8.50 | 5.20 | 1.36best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — AS Roma at 1.36 (Marathonbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for AS Roma (70%), doesn't happen in about 30 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Parma
- L1-2BOL
- W3-0ATA
- D0-0UDI
- L1-2LAZ
- L0-3TOR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
AS Roma
- W3-0SAS
- L2-3MU
- W5-2UDI
- W4-2CAG
- D3-3NAP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Parma
Absence data is not available for this match.
AS Roma
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Parma 0Draws 0AS Roma 4
- PAR 2-3 AR
- AR 2-1 PAR
- PAR 0-1 AR
- AR 5-0 PAR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Parma
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.85last 10
- xG against / game
- 2.10last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.3last 10
- Shots
- 9.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.3last 10
- Fouls
- 10.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Key players
- S. Lontani3G 0A10 apps
- G. Fabbian1G 2A9 apps
- D. Romero2G 0A9 apps
AS Roma
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.19last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.65last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.9last 10
- Shots
- 17.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.2last 10
- Fouls
- 10.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- D. Malen6G 3A9 apps
- M. Soulé2G 4A10 apps
- Rodrigo Mora3G 2A8 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 22,885
Line movement
Parma—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
AS Roma—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward AS Roma, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Home advantage (team-tuned). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-1.12Home advantage (team-tuned)-1.38Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-294League id135Recent form (away)6.43What's at stake (home)0.09
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.