Parma vs Torino prediction
Serie ARound 7Stadio Ennio Tardini
Parma20:45
Mon 19 Oct
Prediction T-24h
TorinoMost likelyTorino win · 37%
Best price2.54 Onexbet
Prediction
34%1Parmamarket 31%
29%XDrawmarket 30%
37%2Torinomarket 39%
Parma+3.0 ppDraw-1.1 ppTorino-1.9 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Parmapays 8% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Torinopays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.20best | 2.40 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.00 | 2.52 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.15 | 2.45 |
| Marathonbet | 3.16 | 3.08 | 2.47 |
| Onexbet | 3.26best | 3.17 | 2.54best |
| Pinnacle | 3.22 | 3.05 | 2.50 |
| Sbo | 2.82 | 2.94 | 2.29 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.40 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Torino at 2.54 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Parma
- L0-3INT
- W2-1GEN
- L1-2COM
- D1-1MON
- L0-2JUV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Torino
- D1-1BOL
- L0-2AR
- W2-1FIO
- L1-2SAS
- L1-2AM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Parma
No reported absences.
Torino
No reported absences.
Head to head
Parma 1Draws 2Torino 1
- TOR 4-1 PAR
- PAR 2-1 TOR
- PAR 2-2 TOR
- TOR 0-0 PAR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Parma
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.65last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.88last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.7last 10
- Shots
- 8.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.4last 10
- Fouls
- 10.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Torino
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.35last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.75last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.8last 10
- Shots
- 11.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 9
Venue
- Venue
- Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
Line movement
Parma—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Torino—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Torino result here, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Recent form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)0.63Recent form (home)2.66What's at stake (home)0.10Fixture congestion (away)0.00Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-23.4Pi-rating edge-0.01
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.