PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
EredivisieRound 14
PEC Zwolle16:45
Sun 29 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
AZ AlkmaarMost likelyAZ Alkmaar win · 66%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: AZ Alkmaar win
Oddbert gives AZ Alkmaar a 66% chance of winning.
11%PEC Zwolle
23%Draw
66%AZ Alkmaar
In 100 matches like this, AZ Alkmaar would win about 66. In the other 34 or so, AZ Alkmaar doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: PEC Zwolle win 11, Draw 23, AZ Alkmaar win 66.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
11%1PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle win
23%XDrawDraw
66%2AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
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Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for AZ Alkmaar (66%), doesn't happen in about 34 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
PEC Zwolle
- D1-1WI
- W1-0ADH
- D1-1UTR
- W4-1GAE
- L0-1CAM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
AZ Alkmaar
- W4-3GRO
- L1-2JUV
- L0-1AJA
- L0-2TWE
- W4-0ARA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
PEC Zwolle
Absence data is not available for this match.
AZ Alkmaar
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
PEC Zwolle 1Draws 1AZ Alkmaar 2
- PZ 3-1 AA
- AA 2-2 PZ
- AA 2-0 PZ
- PZ 1-2 AA
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
PEC Zwolle
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.14last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.63last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.1last 10
- Shots
- 14.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 11.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 9
Key players
- D. Mbayo1G 4A10 apps
- K. Kostons4G 0A8 apps
- T. Oosting2G 1A10 apps
AZ Alkmaar
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.93last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.38last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 14.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 14.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- M. Meerdink7G 1A10 apps
- Weslley Patati2G 1A7 apps
- V. Byskov1G 2A9 apps
Line movement
PEC Zwolle—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
AZ Alkmaar—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a AZ Alkmaar result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.65Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-117Expected goals (home)1.02Recent form (away)4.13What's at stake (away)0.12Recent form (home)5.05
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.