Poland vs Sweden prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League B - 6
Poland20:45
Tue 17 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
SwedenMost likelyPoland win · 40%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Poland win
Oddbert gives Poland a 40% chance of winning.
40%Poland
24%Draw
36%Sweden
In 100 matches like this, Poland would win about 40. In the other 60 or so, Poland doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Poland win 40, Draw 24, Sweden win 36.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
40%1PolandPoland winmarket 41%
24%XDrawDrawmarket 24%
36%2SwedenSweden winmarket 35%
Our model vs market
Poland -0.6 ppDraw +0.1 ppSweden +0.5 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (1 book's price) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Poland (40%), doesn't happen in about 60 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Poland
- L0-1BH
- W6-0ROM
- L1-3SWE
- D0-0BH
- D2-2NIG
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Sweden
- W1-0ROM
- D1-1BH
- W3-1POL
- W2-1ROM
- L0-3FRA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Poland
Absence data is not available for this match.
Sweden
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Poland 1Draws 0Sweden 3
- SWE 3-1 POL
- SWE 3-2 POL
- POL 2-0 SWE
- SWE 3-2 POL
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Poland
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.5last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Key players
Player data from 8 of 10 matches
- Robert Lewandowski5G 2A7 apps
- P. Zieliński3G 2A8 apps
- N. Zalewski1G 3A7 apps
Sweden
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Key players
- V. Gyökeres6G 2A9 apps
- A. Isak3G 3A7 apps
- Y. Ayari3G 1A8 apps
Line movement
Poland—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Sweden—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Poland result here; the model's main factors are International Elo (away) and Home advantage (Elo points). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
International Elo (away)1714Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.