Portland Thorns W vs North Carolina Courage W prediction
NWSL WomenRound Group Stage
Portland Thorns W04:00
Sat 24 Oct
Prediction T-24h
North Carolina Courage WMost likelyPortland Thorns W win · 42%
Prediction
42%1Portland Thorns W
20%XDraw
38%2North Carolina Courage W
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Stale predictionPrediction as of 13 Oct 2026Predictions for this league are paused — this is the last one we made, not a live call.
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Portland Thorns W | North Carolina Courage W |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
This prediction is stale (paused league or not refreshed), so we size nothing on it.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Portland Thorns W
- L2-4BLW
- D1-1HDW
- W4-1OPW
- D1-1CRS
- L1-2WSW
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
North Carolina Courage W
- W1-0SRF
- L1-2URW
- L1-2NGF
- L1-2SDW
- W6-0CRS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Portland Thorns W
No reported absences.
North Carolina Courage W
No reported absences.
Head to head
Portland Thorns W 2Draws 4North Carolina Courage W 1
- NCC 2-2 PTW
- NCC 1-1 PTW
- PTW 0-0 NCC
- PTW 1-0 NCC
- NCC 2-0 PTW
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Portland Thorns W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
North Carolina Courage W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Line movement
Portland Thorns W—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
North Carolina Courage W—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Portland Thorns W result here, shaped mainly by Expected goals (away) and Expected goals (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (away)1.72Expected goals (home)1.79Goal correlation0.12
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.