PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid prediction
UEFA Champions LeagueRound League Stage - 6
PSV Eindhoven21:00
Wed 9 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Atletico MadridMost likelyPSV Eindhoven win · 44%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: PSV Eindhoven win
Oddbert gives PSV Eindhoven a 44% chance of winning.
44%PSV Eindhoven
23%Draw
33%Atletico Madrid
In 100 matches like this, PSV Eindhoven would win about 44. In the other 56 or so, PSV Eindhoven doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: PSV Eindhoven win 44, Draw 23, Atletico Madrid win 33.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
44%1PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven win
23%XDrawDraw
33%2Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 14 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
PSV Eindhoven meet Atletico Madrid. The model leans only slightly toward PSV Eindhoven in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for PSV Eindhoven (44%), doesn't happen in about 56 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
PSV Eindhoven
- W5-2CAM
- L1-2CBK
- W7-0WI
- D1-1FEY
- W1-0FP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Atletico Madrid
- L1-2BAR
- L0-2BM
- W2-0LEV
- W1-0DLC
- D1-1VS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
PSV Eindhoven
Absence data is not available for this match.
Atletico Madrid
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
PSV Eindhoven 0Draws 0Atletico Madrid 1
- PE 2-3 AM
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
PSV Eindhoven
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.13last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.67last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.2last 10
- Shots
- 18.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- S. Mijnans8G 2A9 apps
- G. Til6G 1A10 apps
- E. Bajraktarevic0G 5A8 apps
Atletico Madrid
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.68last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.17last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 15.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.7last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Álex Baena2G 3A10 apps
- Álex Grimaldo3G 1A10 apps
- J. David2G 2A9 apps
Line movement
PSV Eindhoven—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Atletico Madrid—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward PSV Eindhoven in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.70Attacking xG form (home)2.32What's at stake (home)0.00What's at stake (away)0.00Expected goals (home)1.09Defensive xG form (away)1.62
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.