PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II prediction
EredivisieRound 11Philips Stadion
PSV Eindhoven18:45
Sat 31 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Willem IIMost likelyPSV Eindhoven win · 68%
Prediction
68%1PSV Eindhoven
25%XDraw
7%2Willem II
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | PSV Eindhoven | Willem II |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
PSV Eindhoven
- W2-0HEE
- L2-3TWE
- W4-1SR
- D1-1SD
- W3-1AJA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Willem II
- L1-3UTR
- L0-1FS
- L1-5AJA
- D1-1AA
- L0-3EXC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
PSV Eindhoven
No reported absences.
Willem II
No reported absences.
Head to head
PSV Eindhoven 1Draws 1Willem II 0
- PE 1-1 WI
- WI 0-2 PE
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
PSV Eindhoven
Goals
- Scored / game
- 3.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.75last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.40last 9
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.1last 10
- Shots
- 18.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 7.0last 10
- Fouls
- 10.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Willem II
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.21last 8
- xG against / game
- 2.17last 8
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.9last 10
- Shots
- 11.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.8last 10
- Fouls
- 10.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 8
Venue
- Venue
- Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
Line movement
PSV Eindhoven—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Willem II—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a PSV Eindhoven result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)530Pi-rating edge1.92Rest-days edge1.68Defensive xG form (home)2.31Fixture congestion (home)0.00Attacking xG form (home)2.43
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.