QPR vs Derby prediction
ChampionshipRound 10Loftus Road
QPR20:45
Wed 14 Oct
Prediction T-24h
DerbyMost likelyQPR win · 52%
Best price1.80 Dafabet
Prediction
52%1QPRmarket 55%
25%XDrawmarket 24%
23%2Derbymarket 21%
QPR-3.0 ppDraw+0.8 ppDerby+2.2 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | QPRpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 2% more than the typical book | Derbypays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.80 | 4.45best |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| Betvictor | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.80best | 3.85best | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.30 |
| Onexbet | 1.75 | 3.80 | 4.27 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 3.79 | 4.34 |
| Sbo | 1.76 | 3.25 | 3.70 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — QPR at 1.80 (Dafabet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
QPR
- D1-1WH
- D2-2PRE
- D1-1WB
- D0-0CHA
- L0-1MID
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Derby
- D1-1WRE
- D1-1BUR
- L1-2BIR
- L0-1WB
- L0-3WH
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
QPR
No reported absences.
Derby
No reported absences.
Head to head
QPR 1Draws 0Derby 3
- QPR 2-3 DER
- DER 1-0 QPR
- QPR 4-0 DER
- DER 2-0 QPR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
QPR
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.47last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.36last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 15.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 9.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Derby
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.08last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.77last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 12.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 13.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Loftus Road, London
Line movement
QPR—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Derby—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a QPR result here, shaped mainly by Recent form (home) and Defensive xG form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Recent form (home)2.92Defensive xG form (away)1.82Home advantage (team-tuned)15.2Attacking xG form (away)0.96Defensive xG form (home)1.44What's at stake (home)0.01
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.