Rayo Vallecano vs Elche prediction
La LigaRound 10Estadio de Vallecas
Rayo Vallecano14:00
Sat 24 Oct
Prediction T-24h
ElcheMost likelyRayo Vallecano win · 52%
Best price1.81 Onexbet
Prediction
52%1Rayo Vallecanomarket 55%
27%XDrawmarket 24%
21%2Elchemarket 21%
Rayo Vallecano-3.0 ppDraw+2.1 ppElche+0.9 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Rayo Vallecanopays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Elchepays 7% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 3.84 | 4.65 |
| Onexbet | 1.81best | 3.94best | 4.78best |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.81 | 4.46 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Rayo Vallecano at 1.81 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Rayo Vallecano
- D1-1OSA
- W2-1ESP
- L1-4RM
- W3-2RS
- L2-5BAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Elche
- D0-0CV
- W3-1ESP
- L2-3RM
- D1-1AC
- L2-3RS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Rayo Vallecano
No reported absences.
Elche
No reported absences.
Head to head
Rayo Vallecano 1Draws 0Elche 1
- RV 1-0 ELC
- ELC 4-0 RV
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Rayo Vallecano
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.29last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.57last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 13.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 14.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Elche
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.03last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.51last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 10.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 15.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
Line movement
Rayo Vallecano—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Elche—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Rayo Vallecano result here, shaped mainly by Fixture congestion (home) and What's at stake (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Fixture congestion (home)0.00What's at stake (home)0.03Home form (home)9.23Pi-rating edge0.31What's at stake (away)0.18Attacking xG form (away)1.31
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.